Population projection, urban growth and spread analysis from remote sensing data: The case of Köyceğiz, Muğla-Turkey

Abstract

In order to be able to plan the infrastructure of a city where rapid and unplanned urbanization occurs, it is necessary to examine the urban growth and its model. Impermeable surface area is an important factor affecting urbanization and urban environmental quality. Timely and accurate analysis of the dynamic changes of impermeable surfaces is of great importance for urban zoning planning. Köyceğiz district is one of the oldest settlements of Muğla province and preserves its current structure, historical status and cultural texture. In this study, the relationship between population growth, urbanization and land use changes, the effect on the city image and the increase in impermeable surface areas of Köyceğiz district were examined. Satellite images and census data for the years 2004 and 2019 were used to identify different patterns of expansion and land use change in the district. Urban expansion in Köyceğiz was evaluated for a period of 15 years (2004-2019). Maps show that between 2004 and 2019, the amount of urban or developed land increased by 3,25% annually, while non-plant areas decreased by 0,28% and green areas by 0,44%. The urban growth index for Köyceğiz was calculated 1,36.