Predicting fertility, neonatal and perinatal mortality, and stillbirths for evaluation of the needs for perinatal care in the future post-war reconstruction of Ukraine

Abstract

Aim: To predict trends in fertility, neonatal and perinatal mortality, and stillbirth rates to ascertain future perinatal care requirements during the post-war reconstruction in Ukraine. Materials and Methods: The study uses the data from the Centre for Medical Statistics of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, covering the years 2012 to 2022. The data analysis was by a univariate linear regression model. The quality of these models was evaluated using the coefficient of determination, R2. Results: In 2022, the birth rate in Ukraine had declined to 2.5 times lower than that of 2011. The period was characterized by a notable increase in the incidence of premature births and in neonates with birth weights under 1000 grams and between 1000 to 2499 grams. While the neonatal mortality rate decreased by 3.7 times, there remains a statistically significant (p<0.05) increase in the mortality rates of premature infants and neonates weighing less than 1000 grams. The stillbirth rate in Ukraine remains constant; however, it exceeds that of the European Union. Predictions indicate a rise in antenatal mortality and a reduction in both intranatal and perinatal mortality. As of 2022, the perinatal mortality rate in Ukraine made up 7.72 per 1000 live births, which is significantly higher than the rate in the European Union. Conclusions: The optimization of the network of healthcare facilities and resources should be prioritized, in response to the reliable decline in the birth rate. This necessitates improvements in the medical care for premature and low birth weight infants, and efforts for preventing stillbirths.