Fuzzy Expert System for Earthquake Prediction in Western Himalayan Range

Abstract

Fuzzy Expert System (FES) with application to earthquake prediction has been presented to reproduce the performance of a human expert in earthquake prediction using expert systems. This research aims to predict future earthquakes having a magnitude 5.5 or greater. Previous earthquake data from 2000 to 2019 have been collected for this purpose. Since the earthquake data for the specified region have been reported on different magnitude scales, suitable relationships were determined to obtain uniform data. The uniform data have been used to calculate seismicity indicators according to the guidelines provided by Gutenberg-Richter’s scale for quantitative determination of earthquake features. The relationships among these seismic indicators have been used by the human expert to set the rule base of Fuzzy expert system. These rules have been mathematically validated and tested on instrumentally recorded earthquake data. The results obtained from the proposed FES presented 47 % accuracy in predicting future earthquakes that may occur in the 100 km radial area from 34.708 ° N, 72.5478 ° E.