Forecasting of ISO 9001 And ISO 14001 Certifications in Bangladesh Through Arima Model

Abstract

Objective: ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 are widely accepted international standards worldwide for continual improvement in terms of quality and environmental impact respectively. This study aims to predict the diffusion of ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 certifications in Bangladesh from 2022 to 2030.   Theoretical Framework: This study draws on the theory of diffusion to understand how ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 certifications spread in Bangladesh. Complementarily, the application of Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models provides a rigorous methodological approach to forecast the future adoption trajectories of these standards in Bangladesh from 2022 to 2030. This framework contributes to a comprehensive understanding and predictive analysis of the diffusion dynamics of quality and environmental management systems within the region.   Method: Auto‐Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach has been applied to choose the best fit model. The ISO survey of certifications was considered as main source of data.   Results and Discussion: The analysis revealed that, ARIMA (1, 0, 1) and ARIMA (2,1,0) are the best fitted models for ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 respectively in predicting the certification in Bangladesh. The forecasted number of certification for the year 2030 is obtained as 833 for ISO 9001 and 494 for ISO 14001 in Bangladesh. The finding of the study concludes wide scope of diffusion in future.   Research Implications: The study possesses the practical and theoretical implications, providing insights into quality and environmental management system diffusion dynamics, societal and organizational contexts in Bangladesh.   Originality/Value: This study will contribute to enrich existing literature and guide policy makers in policy formulation. This study will also encourage researchers for further analysis in different context.