Opportunities and Threats for Integration Cooperation within the Framework of the Union State of Belarus and Russia: Strategic Situational Analysis. Part 1

Abstract

   Aims: identification of key factors of integration interaction within the internal dimension of the Union State of Belarus and Russia.   Methods: informal substantive analysis of documents, formal legal method, SWOT analysis.   Results and discussion: A set of internal factors of a system-wide nature, directly localized on the territory of the Union State, is investigated. These factors are interpreted as being of fundamental importance for ensuring the positive dynamics of Russian-Belarusian integration. The strengths and weaknesses of bilateral interaction are shown, taking into account theirinfluence, the results achieved and the likely directions of evolution in the context of the “restart” of integration, attributed to the autumn of 2021. The determinants of different levels of the discussion plan, including the motives of the power elites, are emphasized.   Conclusion: The important advantages of the Union State, which distinguish it from other integration associations of the Commonwealth of Independent States region, are the multidimensionality, the coupling of different spheres of integration, the combination of axiological and utilitarian levers of integration. It has significant opportunities for progressive development in the future. However, there are also very tangible threats and risks of internal origin in the Union State. It is recommended to pay close attention to the elimination of internal vulnerabilities and the improvement of branding technologies and information support of the Union construction.