Urban mobility and comorbidities on the incidence and death from COVID-19 in the MAVM

Abstract

Purpose: To identify and quantify, on one hand, the effect of public transportation modes on the incidence rate of COVID-19 infections and, on the other hand, the comorbidities more related to the rate of COVID-19 deaths in the Metropolitan Area of the Valley of Mexico during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic. Methodological design: Two multi-linear regression models were fitted, considering the COVID-19 incidence rate and COVID-19 death rate as dependent variables. Transport, demographic, and healthcare variables were also considered as explanatory. The number of arrivals to a municipality using any mode of transportation was considered to identify the effect of public transportation modes on the incidence rate of COVID-19 infections, and the prevalence of healthcare was considered to determine which comorbidities (included in the model) are more related to the rate of COVID-19 deaths. Results: The greater the number of trips made using small public transport vehicles, the more significantly the incidence rates increase. The number of trips done by walking negatively affects the incidence rate of COVID-19. The prevalence of diabetes and pneumonia is highly associated with increased COVID-19 deaths. Research imitations: This study was carried out considering a hypothetical scenario where the containment measures did not affect the number of trips made in the study area due to the difficulty of obtaining updated data. Findings: Men are more likely to be infected than women. Not only are the comorbidities related to mortality due to COVID-19, but they are also risk factors for contracting the disease.