FORECASTS OF POPULATION CHANGES AT REGIONAL LEVEL WITH FOCUS ON EDUCATIONAL SERVICES

Abstract

Sustainable development goals in education foresee availability of education among others. Availability of educational services exactly near to living place is significant for reaching sustainable development goals. Although, availability of educational services near to living place requires investments and clear understanding of possible demand for the services in the future. Depopulation at regional level is the issue, which complicates availability of education near to living place. As a result, regions need to understand how to develop educational services given sustainable development goals and depopulation at the same time. The issue may be solved through timely understanding of population changes in region what supports grounded investments and targeting of local educational needs at regional level. Within the article, the authors apply simulation model based on system dynamics methods for the case of the region, which experiences depopulation. Within the article, the authors forecast changes in amount of children population as well as amount of children per educational institutions during fifty years in Latgale region in Latvia. Forecasts offer three scenarios depending on supposing fertility rate. Calculations include two children age groups � children up to fourteen years and children between fourteen and nineteen years (teens), thus targeting preschool, primary and secondary education levels. Research results demonstrate that differentiated scenarios clarify possible changes in children population in the region and characterise possible demand for educational services in preschool, primary and secondary education in the long term by indicating the time, when the fastest decline may be observed. Such knowledge may contribute to better-designed regional sustainable development policies given reforms of educational system.