Two’s Company, Three’s a Crowd: Tripolarity and War

Abstract

International systems of three great powers, tripolar systems, remain an understudied topic. In this article, I make three claims about tripolarity. First, it is more warlike than either bipolarity or multipolarity. Second, the two weaker poles of a tripolar system usually ally against the most powerful one. Third, when a pole abruptly declines, the two others have a strong incentive to race to prey on it. To demonstrate this, I develop three cases of past tripolar systems rarely discussed: the Epigoni period during the third century B.C. (Eastern Mediterranean system), the period of the Three Kingdoms during the third century A.D. and the period of the late Northern and Southern Dynasties during the sixth century (East Asian system). This study is thus of importance not only for international relations theory but also for understanding current great power relations since today’s world also consists of three poles: China, Russia and the United States.