Distinct Survival Outcomes in Subgroups of Stage III Pancreatic Cancer Patients: Taiwan Cancer Registry and Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results registry

Abstract

Abstract Purpose Pancreatic cancer is one of the most malignant cancers with poor survival. The latest edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system classifies the majority of operable pancreatic cancer patients as stage-III, while dramatic heterogeneity is observed among these patients. Therefore, subgrouping is required to accurately predict their prognosis and define a treatment plan. This study conducts a cohort study to provide a more precise classification system for stage-III pancreatic cancer patients by utilizing clinical variables. Methods We analyzed survival using log-rank tests, univariate Cox-regression models, and Kaplan-Meier survival curves for stage-III pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) patients from the Taiwan Cancer Registry (TCR). Patients were further divided into subgroups using classification and regression tree (CART) algorithm. All results were validated using the SEER database. Results Among stage-III PDAC patients, lymph node and tumor grade showed significant association with survival. Patients with N2 stage had higher mortality risks (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.71–3.08, p < 0.0001) than N0 patients. Patients with grade 3 also had higher risk of mortality (HR = 3.80, 95% CI 2.25–6.39, p < 0.0001) than grade 1 patients. The CART algorithm stratified stage-III patients into four subgroups with significantly different survival rates. The median survival of the four subgroups was 23.5, 18.4, 14.5, and 9.0 months, respectively (p < 0.0001). Similar results were observed with SEER data. Conclusions Lymph node involvement and tumor grade are predictive factors for survival in stage-III PDAC patients. This new precise classification system can be used to guide treatment planning in advanced-stage pancreatic cancer.