Preoperative Prediction of Long-Term Survival After Surgery in Patients with Resectable Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Abstract

Abstract Background Although some clinical trials have demonstrated the benefits of neoadjuvant therapy for resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), its optimal candidate has not been clarified. This study aimed to detect predictive prognostic factors for resectable PDAC patients who underwent upfront surgery and identify patient cohorts with long-term survival without neoadjuvant therapy. Patients and Methods A total of 232 patients with resectable PDAC who underwent upfront surgery between January 2008 and December 2019 were evaluated. Results The median overall survival (OS) time and 5-year OS rate of resectable PDAC with upfront surgery was 31.5 months and 33.3%, respectively. Multivariate analyses identified tumor diameter in computed tomography (CT) ≤ 19 mm [hazard ratio (HR) 0.40, p < 0.001], span-1 within the normal range (HR 0.54, p = 0.023), prognostic nutritional index (PNI) ≥ 44.31 (HR 0.51, p < 0.001), and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) ≥ 3.79 (HR 0.51, p < 0.001) as prognostic factors that influence favorable prognoses after upfront surgery. According to the prognostic prediction model based on these four factors, patients with four favorable prognostic factors had a better prognosis with a 5-year OS rate of 82.4% compared to others (p < 0.001). These patients had a high R0 resection rate and a low frequency of tumor recurrence after upfront surgery. Conclusions We identified patients with long-term survival after upfront surgery by prognostic prediction model consisting of tumor diameter in CT, span-1, PNI, and LMR. Evaluation of anatomical, biological, nutritional, and inflammatory factors may be valuable to introduce an optimal treatment strategy for resectable PDAC.