Estimating Maturity Status in Elite Youth Soccer Players: Evaluation of Methods

Abstract

ABSTRACT Purpose The objective of this study is to evaluate the concordance of predicted maturity status classifications (pre-, circa-, or post–peak height velocity (PHV)) relative to observed age at PHV in youth soccer players. Methods Longitudinal height records for 124 male soccer players were extracted from academy records spanning the 2000 to 2022 seasons. Age at PHV for each player was estimated with the Superimposition by Translation and Rotation model. Players were classified as pre-, circa-, or post-PHV using both ±1- and ±0.5-yr criteria to define the circa-PHV interval. Maturity status was estimated with several prediction protocols: maturity offset (Mirwald, Moore-1, Moore-2), maturity ratio (Fransen), and percentage of predicted adult height (PAH%) using the Khamis–Roche and Tanner–Whitehouse 2 equations using several bands: 85% to 96%, 88% to 96%, 88% to 93%, and 90% to 93% for the circa-PHV interval, and visual evaluation of individual growth curves alone or with PAH% based on Khamis–Roche and Tanner–Whitehouse 2. Concordance of maturity status classifications based on complete growth curves and predicted estimates of maturity status was addressed with percentage agreement and Cohen’s kappa. Results Visual evaluation of the growth curves had the highest concordance (≈80%) with maturity status classifications (pre-, circa-, post-PHV) based on longitudinal data for individual players. Predicted maturity offset with the Mirwald, Moore-1, and Fransen equations misclassified about one-third to one-half of the players, whereas concordance based on PAH% varied with the band used, but not with the method of height prediction. Conclusions Visual assessment of the individual growth curves by an experienced assessor provides an accurate estimate of maturity status relative to PHV. Maturity offset prediction equations misclassify the majority of players, whereas PAH% provides a reasonably valid alternative.