People, Place and the Economic Theory of Voting: The 1992 British General Election

Abstract

Much recent research on voting patterns in Great Britain has shown that economic concerns strongly influence many electors: those who are optimistic about their own and the country's future are more likely to support the incumbent government than are pessimists. The last two decades have also seen greater spatial polarisation of the British electorate, with Labour becoming relatively stronger in the north and Conservatives in the south. This paper provides the first direct evidence from survey data linking spatial polarisation to electors' evaluation of trends in regional economies. Voters who felt that their own and their region's economic situation had been in relative decline were less likely to vote Conservative in 1992, especially if they blamed government policy for those conditions.