Exploring sustainable energy consumption and social conflict risks in Turkey: Insights from a novel multiresolution ARDL approach

Abstract

AbstractNonrenewable energy sources have been shown to be a cause of conflict and terrorism, highlighting the global conflict aspect, but little is known about the causal relationship between the energy system and terrorism in Turkey. This study aims to fill this gap by examining the causal links among renewable energy consumption, fossil fuels, terrorist attacks, education, trade opening, and geopolitical risks in Turkey from 1980 to 2016. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and Granger causality tests, the study analyzes the short and long‐term relationships between the variables. Additionally, robustness tests are conducted using a powerful multiresolution ARDL approach to ensure the stability of the statistical findings. The results reveal the existence of long‐term relationships between all the variables, particularly among terrorism, renewable energy, and education. In the short term, a one‐way relationship exists between terrorism and education to renewable energies and from trade openness to terrorism. The study demonstrates that nonrenewable energy increases terrorism in the long term, whereas renewable energy and trade openness reduce terrorism, highlighting the potential impact of global conflicts on Turkey's sustainable development. Therefore, renewable energy is a powerful tool to fight against terrorism, and Turkey has encouraged its use and deployment of diplomatic efforts to resolve political and military conflicts, particularly in the Middle East. This study provides insights into the complex relationship among sustainable energy consumption, terrorism, education, and trade opening, contributing to the understanding of the geopolitical risks and economics in Turkey. It has implications for policymakers in the region, highlighting the importance of renewable energy and trade openness as tools for conflict resolution and sustainable development in the face of global conflicts.