Between victory and peace: Unravelling the paradox of hope in intractable conflicts

Author:

Shani Maor12ORCID,Kunst Jonas R.3,Anjum Gulnaz3ORCID,Obaidi Milan45,Leshem Oded Adomi267,Antonovsky Roman8,van Zalk Maarten1,Halperin Eran2

Affiliation:

1. Department of Developmental Psychology Osnabrück University Osnabruck Germany

2. Department of Psychology Hebrew University of Jerusalem Jerusalem Israel

3. Department of Psychology University of Oslo Oslo Norway

4. Center for Research on Extremism (C‐REX) University of Oslo Oslo Norway

5. Department of Psychology University of Copenhagen Copenhagen Denmark

6. Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace Hebrew University Jerusalem Israel

7. Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter School for Peace and Conflict Resolution George Mason University Arlington Virginia USA

8. Independent Researcher Atlit Israel

Abstract

AbstractPrevious research on group‐based hope has predominantly focused on positive intergroup outcomes, such as peace and harmony. In this paper, we demonstrate that hope experienced towards group‐centric political outcomes, such as a victory in a conflict and defeating the enemy, can be detrimental to peace. In Study 1, conducted among Israeli Jews, hope for victory over the Palestinians was uniquely associated with more support for extreme war policies, whereas hope for peace generally showed the opposite associations. In Study 2, we replicated these results among Muslim Pakistanis regarding the Pakistan–India dispute. Notably, in both Studies 1 and 2, only hope for victory significantly predicted personal violent extremist intentions. In Study 3, conducted with a representative sample of Israeli Jews, we found three latent profiles of hope: victory hopers, peace hopers, and dual hopers (hoping for both peace and victory). Finally, in preregistered Study 4, we longitudinally investigated how hopes for victory and peace changed from a relatively calm period in 2021 to the Israel–Hamas War of 2023, utilizing a Bivariate Latent Change Score analysis. Increases in hope for victory during the highly intense war explained the increase in support for violence. We discuss implications, limitations, and directions for future research.

Publisher

Wiley

Reference64 articles.

1. AWRAD. (2023).Wartime poll: Results of an opinion poll among Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.Arab World for Research & Development https://www.awrad.org/files/server/polls/polls2023/Public%20Opinion%20Poll%20‐%20Gaza%20War%202023.pdf

2. Peace Education in Societies Involved in Intractable Conflicts: Direct and Indirect Models

3. Theory of victory;Bartholomees J. B.;Parameters,2008

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