Unpacking Conflict Process on the Korean Peninsula with Political and Seasonal Distribution

Abstract

Under what conditions does a North Korean threat escalate to the actual use of force? To address this question, we delve into the underlying causal mechanism that shapes the entire conflict process on the Korean Peninsula. Dismissing the presumption that repeated disputes are independent of one another and that factors exhibit a monotonic effect across conflict stages, we direct our focus towards the comprehensive conflict process encompassing North Korea's provocation onset and escalation. Our approach involves the systematic collection of monthly data, which we analyze using appropriate statistical models to account for the selection effect. The empirical investigation not only corroborates our theoretical proposition but also uncovers several key factors that exhibit a non‐monotonic effect across various stages of conflict. The results indicate that North Korea's domestic factors and those within South Korea influence the onset of conflict, while the escalation stage is shaped by factors within the United States. Furthermore, our findings highlight the effect of seasonality, indicating an increased frequency of conflict onset and escalation during the summer season.