Simulating urban land‐use change based on the multi‐hierarchal planning–environment interaction process

Abstract

AbstractUrban land‐use change is the result of coupling interaction between planning and environment systems. The aim of our study was to construct an effective model to show how the urban land‐use changes under the planning–environment interaction system with multi‐hierarchy and major function oriented zoning. Combining the Cellular automata (CA) model with logistic regression model, the proposed multi‐hierarchal vector CA model (MH‐VCA3) was constructed by mining multi‐hierarchal land‐use transition rules under the planning–environment interaction system. Taking Jiangyin City (China) as an example, we compared the simulated result of the proposed model to those of the well‐accepted Logistic CA and traditional multi‐level CA models to demonstrate the effectiveness of the consideration of top‐down decomposition constraint and bottom‐up updating. Furthermore, by simulating the land‐use changes under different population regionalization scenarios, we found that in order to form the spatial pattern of “agglomeration in the north and ecology in the south,” the planned population growth at the global hierarchal level should be allocated to the district units according to the law of Central district > Chengxi district > Chengdong district > Chengnan district > Chengdongnan district. The proposed model is expected to provide scientific support for the formulation of urban planning schemes in the future.