Affiliation:
1. Jonathan (Jonty) Rougier is an independent scientist (rougierconsulting.com), and an honorary professor in the University of Bristol’s School of Mathematics. In 2021 he received the Royal Statistical Society Barnett Award for contributions to environmental statistics, risk and uncertainty quantification
Abstract
Abstract
Estimating rates of occurrence over time of hazards such as volcanic eruptions and earthquakes is crucial for risk assessment and planning. But it can be difficult. Human records only go back so far, and older ones may be patchy, making it hard to pinpoint the start of the “reliable history” for a particular type of event. Fear not, though, says Jonathan Rougier: a simple event-rate estimator might still hold up, even if we “overshoot” the reliable history by a century or more
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Subject
Statistics and Probability