Progression‐free survival is a weakly predictive surrogate end‐point for overall survival in follicular lymphoma: A systematic review and meta‐analysis

Author:

Milrod Charles J.1ORCID,Kim Kang Woo2,Raker Christina3ORCID,Ollila Thomas A.1ORCID,Olszewski Adam J.1ORCID,Pelcovits Ari1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Hematology/Oncology Brown University Providence Rhode Island USA

2. Warren Alpert School of Medicine Brown University Providence Rhode Island USA

3. Lifespan Biostatistics, Epidemiology, Research Design, and Informatics, Rhode Island Hospital Providence Rhode Island USA

Abstract

SummaryAlthough progression‐free survival (PFS) is a commonly used surrogate end‐point for clinical trials of follicular lymphoma (FL), no analyses have evaluated the strength of surrogacy for PFS with overall survival (OS). A systematic review was performed and 20 studies (total participants, 10 724) met final inclusion criteria. PFS was weakly associated with OS (correlation coefficient; 0.383, p < 0.001). The coefficient of determination was 0.15 (95% CI: 0.002–0.35) suggesting 15% of OS variance could be explained by changes in PFS. This challenges the role for PFS as a surrogate end‐point for clinical trials and drug approvals.

Publisher

Wiley

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