The Principle of Cyclicality of the Second-Order Election Theory for Simultaneous Multi-Level Elections

Abstract

The principle of cyclicality in the leading theory of multi-level voting – second-order election theory – assumes that simultaneous multi-level voting should be congruent and that regional electoral contests should have no second-order election effects: regional turnout should not decrease, parties in office should not lose support, while opposition, small and new parties should not attract more votes. This article tests the principle of cyclicality of second-order election theory against a set of simultaneous multi-level elections in order to explain why second-order election effects rise and fall.