Range contractions and reduced body mass predicted for endemic skinks of the Cameroon Volcanic Line with future warming

Abstract

AbstractAimThe vulnerability of montane species to environmental change has been increasingly recognized in recent years. However, most of these species are regionally endemic with restricted distributions, limiting dispersal necessary for avoiding extinction. The outcome of threats posed for montane lizards is further complicated in species exhibiting mass–temperature relationships where body size increases with cooling temperatures, and thus with altitude, causing intraspecific physiological and behavioural differences. We aimed to identify areas suitable for montane endemic skinks of the Cameroon Volcanic Line (CVL) under current and future climates to reveal patterns of persistence and vulnerability based on an intersection of climate and body mass.LocationCameroon Volcanic LineMethodsWe recorded occurrences and measured body mass in the field for two CVL‐endemic skink species. We supplemented occurrences with online repository records. We projected current and future habitat suitability in the region by implementing bioclimatic species distribution models‐based on occurrences. We tested for elevational variations in body mass, and integrated both occurrence and body mass information in a trait‐based model to estimate current and future body mass.ResultsProjected currently suitable habitat for both species was limited to higher elevation regions, which are inhabited by numerous other threatened herpetofauna. We additionally detected Bergmann clines in body mass for both species. Given this variation in body mass, trait model projections covered slightly larger geographical ranges than bioclimatic estimates. Under future warming, both models project substantial contractions in suitable areas, potentially constraining species to mountain tops. Through the trait‐based approach, we further detected potential warming‐induced body mass reductions in projected suitable areas.Main ConclusionsWe demonstrate how combining occurrence records with species trait information in ecological modelling can reveal complementary trends for comprehensive warming impact assessments. Overall, challenges toward the persistence of CVL‐endemic skinks should prompt urgent responses in national conservation management and local community engagement.