A Multi‐Modelling Approach for Informing the Conservation of a Cold‐Adapted Terrestrial Amphibian in the Face of Climate Change

Author:

Čengić Mirza12ORCID,Šunje Emina234ORCID,Bonato Lucio56ORCID,Van Damme Raoul4ORCID,Lenders Rob H. J.17ORCID,Huijbregts Mark A. J.1ORCID,Lukić Bilela Lada3ORCID,Schipper Aafke M.18ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Environmental Science Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Science (RIBES), Radboud University Nijmegen The Netherlands

2. Herpetological Association in B&H – ATRA (BHHU – ATRA) Sarajevo Bosnia and Herzegovina

3. Evolutionary Ecology Group, Faculty of Science University of Sarajevo Sarajevo Bosnia and Herzegovina

4. Laboratory of Functional Morphology University of Antwerp Antwerp Belgium

5. Dipartimento di Biologia Università di Padova Padova Italy

6. National Biodiversity Future Centre Palermo Italy

7. Institute for Science in Society, Faculty of Science, Radboud University Nijmegen The Netherlands

8. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency The Hague The Netherlands

Abstract

ABSTRACTAimWe aimed to assess potential climate change impacts on the distribution of a cold‐adapted terrestrial amphibian that shows strong intraspecific differentiation.LocationAlps and Dinarides.TaxonAlpine salamander (Salamandra atra).MethodsWe built SDMs for each of two major intraspecific lineages (S. a. atra, which is found throughout the Northern Alps, and S. a. prenjensis, which appears sparsely along the Dinarides) and for the entire species, using occurrence points from a carefully curated database, climate data with 1 km2 spatial resolution and eight modelling techniques. We projected climatically suitable areas to 2070 under two climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), using 24 general circulation models.ResultsFor S. a. atra, under RCP2.6 scenario, we detected a 3% increase in the extent of climatically suitable areas in the Alps (although with low model agreement), yet a 6% decrease under the RCP8.5 scenario. For S. a. prenjensis, we detected a decrease in the extent of climatically suitable areas in the Dinarides between 7% and 45% (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively). The SDM predictions for the entire species were most in line with those of the S. a. atra model. Although climate variables were not equally strong in predicting the climatic suitability for both lineages, the minimum temperature of the coldest month revealed an important predictor for the entire species, with clear decreases in suitability towards higher temperature.Main ConclusionsAll models reveal a considerable decrease in climate suitability throughout most of the range of S. atra, which is particularly visible in the Dinarides. We highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation when modelling climate change impacts on geographically differentiated species whose populations vary in their climatic niche. We provide our study results (occurrence data and maps) via a web application that can be useful for guiding conservation efforts.

Funder

Rufford Foundation

Publisher

Wiley

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