Spatial spillover effects associated with the Sweden Democrats' growing support

Abstract

AbstractResearch on the growing support of radical right parties cannot ignore the role of spatial, contextual effects and geographical proximity. One important spatial factor is the halo effect, which suggests that a radical right party is more likely to perform well in a homogeneous electoral district surrounded by ethnically diverse areas. Voter behaviour is influenced by certain neighbourhood effects, which can be spatially distant, originating from neighbouring areas. In this way, the presence of groups more inclined to support the radical right in an area can, through interaction and observations of signs or norms, modify an individual's party preference. In this paper, I model the 2018 election results of the Sweden Democrats at the level of the 6004 Swedish electoral districts using the Spatial Durbin Model specification. The spatial model shows a better fit and indicates a spillover effect of the level of education and median wealth in addition to the contextual role of ethnic diversity and its change. Changes in the proportion of non‐Europeans in neighbouring areas have had a particularly strong spillover effect, which is associated with the growing support for the Sweden Democrats.