Risk factors for chronic kidney disease progression over 20 years for primary prevention in Japanese individuals at a preventive medicine research center: Focus on the influence of plasma glucose levels

Abstract

ABSTRACTAims/IntroductionChronic kidney disease (CKD) is a very important issue globally because of the risk of its progressing to end‐stage renal disease. We aimed to identify factors contributing to long‐term estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline to determine an early diagnosis and prevent CKD progression.Materials and MethodsFrom January 2003 to December 2006, 5,507 individuals underwent health checkups at our hospital's Preventive Medicine Research Center. We ultimately enrolled 2,175 individuals. The eGFR was ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2 at the start of observation period, which was 20 years. The event onset time was the day that the eGFR became <30 mL/min during the 20‐year period. Baseline risk factors – in particular, the effect of plasma glucose levels on the eGFR – were extracted and evaluated by using Fine and Gray analysis.ResultsDuring the 20‐year observation, the hazard ratio (HR) of CKD progression was examined. A fasting plasma glucose (FPG) level ≥105 mg/dL was significantly associated with the risk of CKD progressing to an eGFR <30 mL/min. This trend was similar in the slope of eGFR. An FPG ≥105 mg/dL or an glycated hemoglobin level ≥6.5% was useful for intervening in CKD progression. Multivariate analysis showed that independent risk factors were an FPG level ≥105 mg/dL (HR 1.9; P < 0.001), age ≥60 years (HR 3.86; P < 0.001), obesity (HR 1.61; P < 0.01) and urinary protein (HR 1.55; P < 0.01).ConclusionsFor early intervention against a reduction in the eGFR, detecting mild increases in FPG ≥105 mg/dL in patients with CKD with or without diabetes is useful.