Trend of blood donors entering the coronavirus pandemic era and challenges: Age‐period‐cohort analysis using 75.5 million all blood donations data during 2006–2020 in Japan

Abstract

AbstractBackgroundIn Japan, “Blood Donation Promotion 2025,” a blood donation target, was established based on a predicted blood donation rate of 5.7% in 2025, which was calculated by the Blood Donation Promotion Study Group (BD research group) of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare using nationwide blood donation data through 2018. However, COVID‐19 since 2020 may affect the blood donation rate in Japan.MethodData from 75.5 million blood donations from 2006 to 2020 was used. The age‐period‐cohort model (APC model) was applied to estimate age, period, and birth cohort factors on blood donation rate and to predict the age‐specific blood donation rates from 2021 to 2035.ResultsThe APC model was highly reproducible for blood donation rates (modified R2 = 0.99). The blood donation rate in 2020 was 6.0% (5.04 million), an increase compared to 2019. Comparing this study with the BD research group, the predicted blood donation rates in 2025 for those 16–19 years old and in 20s are lower (4.8% vs. 5.2% and 5.3% vs. 5.5%) but those among 50s and 60s are higher (7.9% vs. 7.5% and 4.2% vs. 3.9%, respectively).DiscussionThe number of blood donations in 2020 increased despite COVID‐19 and it proved that the blood donation promotion was effective. The different age‐specific blood donation rates between our study and the report of BD research group infers the effect of COVID‐19 on blood donation were differed by age and suggested the need for different approaches to blood donation promotion by generation.