From respiratory diseases to nervous system disorders: Unraveling the certified causes of influenza‐associated deaths in Poland from 2000 to 2019

Author:

Walkowiak Marcin Piotr1ORCID,Walkowiak Dariusz2

Affiliation:

1. Department of Preventive Medicine Poznan University of Medical Sciences Poznań Poland

2. Department of Organization and Management in Health Care Poznan University of Medical Sciences Poznań Poland

Abstract

AbstractBackgroundThis study aims to accurately estimate influenza‐associated deaths in Poland and their certified cause of death, due to significant discrepancies between official numbers and expected impact.MethodsExcess influenza‐associated mortality in Poland from 2000 to 2019 was calculated using Seasonal‐Trend Decomposition Procedure based on LOESS (STL), which can detect non‐linear trends and non‐sinusoidal cycles. Excess mortality was then used as an explanatory variable in a model predicting monthly fluctuations of officially recorded causes of death from 2010 to 2019.ResultsA total of 142,000 conservative estimates of influenza‐associated deaths were identified, representing 1.86% of overall mortality. Only 0.61% of influenza‐associated deaths were officially recorded as influenza. Nearly half of certified influenza deaths were attributed to the seasonal baseline mortality, potentially doubling estimated impact based solely on influenza peaks. Influenza‐associated deaths were frequently recorded as respiratory diseases (24.36%), with majority attributed to underlying conditions such as cardiovascular diseases (45.31%), cancer (9.06%), or diabetes (2.66%). Influenza‐associated deaths were more commonly certified as nervous system diseases (1.84%) or mental disorders (1.04%), rather than influenza itself. There was a noticeable impact of influenza on secondary infections, such as meningococcal and gastrointestinal infections.ConclusionThese findings highlight the importance of improved estimation for informing public health policy decisions.

Publisher

Wiley

Subject

Infectious Diseases,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health,Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine,Epidemiology

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