Mortgage rates and credit risk: Evidence from mortgage pools

Author:

Antinolfi Gaetano1,Brunetti Celso2ORCID,Im Jay2

Affiliation:

1. Department of Economics Washington University in St. Louis St. Louis Missouri USA

2. Division of Research and Statistics Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Washington District of Columbia USA

Abstract

AbstractIn the 1990s, securitised subprime loans supported the growth of mortgage lending. We study the evolution of initial mortgage rates as a function of loan and borrower characteristics during 1992–2015. We compare the evolution of initial rates on securitised subprime mortgages with rates of prime privately securitised mortgages, mortgages securitised by government‐sponsored enterprises, and nonsecuritised mortgages. Starting in 2003 the risk premium on subprime loans decreases until it disappears at the onset of the Global Financial Crisis. We find that loading factors on subprime rates are cointegrated with delinquencies and house price movements, providing evidence of the important role of the subprime market.

Publisher

Wiley

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