A broader flight season for Norway's Odonata across a century and a half

Abstract

As global climate continues to change, so too will phenology of a wide range of insects. Changes in flight season usually are characterised as shifts to earlier dates or means, with attention less often paid to flight season breadth or whether seasons are now skewed. We amassed flight season data for the insect order Odonata, the dragonflies and damselflies, for Norway over the past century‐and‐a‐half to examine the form of flight season change. By means of Bayesian analyses that incorporated uncertainty relative to annual variability in survey effort, we estimated shifts in flight season mean, breadth, and skew. We focussed on flight season breadth, positing that it will track documented growing season expansion. A specific mechanism explored was shifts in voltinism, the number of generations per year, which tends to increase with warming. We found strong evidence for an increase in flight season breadth but much less for a shift in mean, with any shift of the latter tending toward a later mean. Skew has become rightward for suborder Zygoptera, the damselflies, but not for Anisoptera, the dragonflies, or for the Odonata as a whole. We found weak support for voltinism as a predictor of broader flight season; instead, voltinism acted interactively with use of human‐modified habitats, including decrease in shading (e.g. from timber extraction). Other potential mechanisms that link warming with broadening of flight season include protracted emergence and cohort splitting, both of which have been documented in the Odonata. It is likely that warming‐induced broadening of flight seasons of these widespread insect predators will have wide‐ranging consequences for freshwater ecosystems.