Effects of human depopulation and warming climate on bird populations in Japan

Abstract

AbstractQuantifying biodiversity trends in economically developed countries, where depopulation, associated secondary succession, and climate warming are ongoing, provides insights for global biodiversity conservation in the 21st century. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of secondary succession and climate warming on species’ population trends at a national scale. We estimated the population trends of common breeding bird species in Japan and examined the associations between the overall population trend and species traits with the nationwide bird count data on 47 species collected from 2009 to 2020. The overall population trend varied among species. Four species populations increased moderately, 18 were stable, and 11 declined moderately. Population trends for 13 species were uncertain. The difference in overall trends among the species was associated with their habitat group and temperature niche. Species with relatively low‐temperature niches experienced more pronounced declines. Multispecies indicators showed a moderate increase in forest specialists and moderate declines in forest generalists (species that use both forests and open habitats) and open‐habitat specialists. Forest generalists and open‐habitat specialists also declined more rapidly at sites with more abandoned farmland. All species groups showed an accelerated decline or decelerated increase after 2015. These results suggest that common breeding birds in Japan are facing deteriorating trends as a result of nationwide changes in land use and climate. Future land‐use planning and policies should consider the benefits of passive rewilding for forest specialists and active restoration measures (e.g., low‐intensive forestry and agriculture) for nonforest specialists to effectively conserve biodiversity in the era of human depopulation and climate warming.