Diversification of refugia types needed to secure the future of coral reefs subject to climate change

Author:

McClanahan Tim R.1ORCID,Darling Emily S.1,Beger Maria23,Fox Helen E.4,Grantham Hedley S.5,Jupiter Stacy D.6,Logan Cheryl A.7,Mcleod Elizabeth8,McManus Lisa C.9,Oddenyo Remy M.10,Surya Gautam S.5,Wenger Amelia. S.111,Zinke Jens12,Maina Joseph M.13

Affiliation:

1. Global Marine Programs Wildlife Conservation Society Bronx New York USA

2. School of Biology University of Leeds Leeds UK

3. Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Biological Sciences University of Queensland Brisbane Queensland Australia

4. Coral Reef Alliance Oakland California USA

5. Forests and Climate Change Wildlife Conservation Society Bronx New York USA

6. Melanesia Program Wildlife Conservation Society Suva Fiji

7. Department of Marine Science California State University, Monterey Bay Seaside California USA

8. Global Reefs Program The Nature Conservancy Arlington Virginia USA

9. Hawai‘i Institute of Marine Biology School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa Kāneʻohe Hawai‘i USA

10. Kenya Marine Program Wildlife Conservation Society Mombasa Kenya

11. Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science University of Queensland St. Lucia Queensland Australia

12. School of Geography, Geology and the Environment University of Leicester Leicester UK

13. School of Natural Sciences Macquarie University Sydney New South Wales Australia

Abstract

AbstractIdentifying locations of refugia from the thermal stresses of climate change for coral reefs and better managing them is one of the key recommendations for climate change adaptation. We review and summarize approximately 30 years of applied research focused on identifying climate refugia to prioritize the conservation actions for coral reefs under rapid climate change. We found that currently proposed climate refugia and the locations predicted to avoid future coral losses are highly reliant on  excess heat metrics, such as degree heating weeks. However, many existing alternative environmental, ecological, and life‐history variables could be used to identify other types of refugia that lead to the desired diversified portfolio for coral reef conservation. To improve conservation priorities for coral reefs, there is a need to evaluate and validate the predictions of climate refugia with long‐term field data on coral abundance, diversity, and functioning. There is also the need to identify and safeguard locations displaying resistance toprolonged exposure to heat waves and the ability to recover quickly after thermal exposure. We recommend using more metrics to identify a portfolio of potential refugia sites for coral reefs that can avoid, resist, and recover from exposure to high ocean temperatures and the consequences of climate change, thereby shifting past efforts focused on avoidance to a diversified risk‐spreading portfolio that can be used to improve strategic coral reef conservation in a rapidly warming climate.

Funder

Bloomberg Family Foundation

Publisher

Wiley

Subject

Nature and Landscape Conservation,Ecology,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

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