Dynamic Changes in ELF Score Predict Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients Receiving Antiviral Treatment

Abstract

ABSTRACTEnhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) score is a noninvasive assessment for liver fibrosis. We aimed to evaluate the performance of changes in ELF score 3 years apart in combination with liver stiffness measurement (LSM)‐hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) score to predict HCC in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. This is a prospective cohort study. Patients who underwent transient elastography (TE) examinations and at intermediate or high risk of HCC defined by LSM‐HCC score were invited to repeat the examination about 3 years later. Their serum samples at these two time points were retrieved to assess the ELF score changes. The primary endpoint was HCC. There were 445 CHB patients (males: 73.9%; mean age: 51.6 ± 10.3 years) who received two TE examinations and ELF scores. Among them, 252 (56.6%) and 193 (43.4%) patients were at intermediate and high HCC risk at first assessment defined by LSM‐HCC score, respectively. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that the changes in ELF score could stratify the HCC risk in both intermediate‐ and high‐risk patients defined by LSM‐HCC score (p < 0.001 for intermediate‐risk group; p = 0.011 for high‐risk group). Patients remained having mild or moderate fibrosis at both assessments had the lowest risk of HCC (4.0%), followed by patients with fibrosis regressed (11.3%; p = 0.014) during a mean follow‐up of 163 months. Patients remained having or progressed to severe fibrosis were at highest risk of HCC (>20%). Consistent findings were demonstrated in patients at both intermediate and high risk of HCC defined by LSM‐HCC score. Dynamic changes in ELF score provided additional value to LSM‐HCC score for stratifying HCC risk in CHB patients.