Objective conditions, political knowledge, and perceptions of electoral competition in U.S. mayoral elections

Abstract

AbstractObjectiveThis article investigates the extent to which perceptions of the competitive context of mayoral elections reflect actual levels of competition and how that relationship is shaped by political expertise.MethodsWe use a unique survey data set of more than 6000 respondents interviewed in 40 separate mayoral elections.ResultsIn broad strokes, people living in competitive cities are more likely than others to predict competitive outcomes. However, in keeping with the knowledge gap hypothesis, the relationship between objective levels of competition and perceived levels of competition is much stronger among those with relatively high levels of political knowledge than those with low levels of political knowledge.ConclusionsThe connection between actual and perceived conditions does not hold evenly for all segments of society—the information‐rich respond to their political environment, while the information‐poor are relatively unmoved by that environment. This pattern of asymmetric information acquisition is a familiar one in American politics and provides further evidence of an important source of political inequality.