The geography of Hispanic political behavior in Texas, 2012–2022

Abstract

AbstractObjectiveWe make use of multiple data sources to examine whether there has been geographical polarization in the political behavior of Texas Hispanics from 2012 to 2022. It is widely known that partisan divisions in the American electorate continue to cleave along geographic lines. However, much of this literature on the urban–rural divide does not focus on a specific racial group, and if it does, then it typically highlights differences among non‐Hispanic white voters (Anglos).MethodsMaking use of aggregate‐ and individual‐level data, we assess Texas Hispanics’ party affiliation, participation, and vote choice according to geographic location.ResultsWe find notable evidence of geographic‐based partisan polarization among Texas’ burgeoning Hispanic population.ConclusionsAlthough the movement of rural/small town Texas Hispanics toward the Republican Party from 2012 to 2022 pales in comparison to this shift among Texas Anglos, a similar partisan dynamic manifests among the former group. We abstain from using the word realignment to characterize these changes in Texas Hispanics’ political behavior according to geographic location, but, nevertheless, it is clear that the Democratic Party's hold on this potentially pivotal group in the Lone Star State's electorate has loosened, and especially among rural/small town Latinos since the rise of Donald Trump.