NPCC4: New York City climate risk information 2022—observations and projections

Author:

Braneon Christian123ORCID,Ortiz Luis4ORCID,Bader Daniel56,Devineni Naresh7,Orton Philip8,Rosenzweig Bernice9,McPhearson Timon101112,Smalls‐Mantey Lauren13,Gornitz Vivien6,Mayo Talea14,Kadam Sanketa3,Sheerazi Hadia15,Glenn Equisha16,Yoon Liv17,Derras‐Chouk Amel18,Towers Joel19,Leichenko Robin20,Balk Deborah121,Marcotullio Peter22,Horton Radley323

Affiliation:

1. CUNY Institute for Demographic Research (CIDR) City University of New York New York New York USA

2. Carbon Direct New York New York USA

3. Columbia Climate School Columbia University New York New York USA

4. Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences George Mason University Fairfax Country Virginia USA

5. Center for Climate Systems Research Columbia University New York New York USA

6. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies New York New York USA

7. Department of Civil Engineering and CUNY CREST Institute The City College of New York New York New York USA

8. Stevens Institute of Technology Hoboken New Jersey USA

9. Department of Environmental Science Sarah Lawrence College Bronxville New York USA

10. Urban Systems Lab The New School New York New York USA

11. Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies Millbrook New York USA

12. Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden

13. New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene New York New York USA

14. Department of Mathematics Emory University Atlanta Georgia USA

15. RMI (founded as the Rocky Mountain Institute) New York New York USA

16. Metropolitan Transportation Authority New York New York USA

17. The University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada

18. Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences The City College of New York New York New York USA

19. Parsons School of Design The New School New York New York USA

20. Department of Geography and Rutgers Climate Institute Rutgers University New Brunswick New Jersey USA

21. Marxe School of Public and International Affairs Baruch College New York New York USA

22. Department of Geography and Environmental Science Hunter College, CUNY New York New York USA

23. Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades New York USA

Abstract

AbstractNew York City (NYC) faces many challenges in the coming decades due to climate change and its interactions with social vulnerabilities and uneven urban development patterns and processes. This New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) report contributes to the Panel's mandate to advise the city on climate change and provide timely climate risk information that can inform flexible and equitable adaptation pathways that enhance resilience to climate change. This report presents up‐to‐date scientific information as well as updated sea level rise projections of record. We also present a new methodology related to climate extremes and describe new methods for developing the next generation of climate projections for the New York metropolitan region. Future work by the Panel should compare the temperature and precipitation projections presented in this report with a subset of models to determine the potential impact and relevance of the “hot model” problem. NPCC4 expects to establish new projections‐of‐record for precipitation and temperature in 2024 based on this comparison and additional analysis. Nevertheless, the temperature and precipitation projections presented in this report may be useful for NYC stakeholders in the interim as they rely on the newest generation of global climate models.

Publisher

Wiley

Cited by 5 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

1. NPCC4: Tail risk, climate drivers of extreme heat, and new methods for extreme event projections;Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences;2024-08-19

2. NPCC4: Climate change and New York City's flood risk;Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences;2024-08-19

3. NPCC4: Concepts and tools for envisioning New York City's futures;Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences;2024-06-25

4. NPCC4: Climate change and New York City's health risk;Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences;2024-06-25

5. NPCC4: Climate risk and equity—advancing knowledge toward a sustainable future | Introduction;Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences;2024-06-25

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