Affiliation:
1. International Marine Climate Change Centre (iMC3) Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas) Lowestoft UK
2. Met Office Exeter UK
3. Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) Plymouth UK
4. Collaborative Centre for Sustainable Use of the Seas (CCSUS) University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park Norwich UK
Abstract
AbstractUnder future climate change, modification of temperature and salinity are expected to result in distribution shifts of marine organisms, including commercial fish and shellfish. Changes are anticipated everywhere, including in the seas of many important fishing nations. Species turnover will in turn result in both opportunities and threats to fishing industries. To determine the impacts for northwest European shelf fisheries, we project changes for 49 commercially important fish and shellfish species using an ensemble of five ecological niche models and three different downscaled climate change projections. The habitat suitability and latitudinal shifts projected from the recent past (1997–2016) to two futures (2030–2050; 2050–2070) were calculated for waters around the United Kingdom. Of the species examined, around half were projected to have consistently more suitable habitat in the future, including European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax, Moronidae), sardine (Sardina pilchardus, Alosidae) and anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus, Engraulidae). Conversely, it is suggested that UK waters will become less suitable for species including Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua, Gadidae) and saithe (Pollachius virens, Gadidae). Our comprehensive approach using a number of models and climate change scenarios shows that while there are differences in the magnitude of change between models, and while some models perform better for certain species compared with others, overall, the general trends in habitat suitability and abundance are robust across models and climate scenarios. This emphasises the value in using more than one modelling technique with different climate scenarios (i.e., an ensemble approach) to capture the uncertainty or agreement around climate change projections.
Funder
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme
Subject
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law,Aquatic Science,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics,Oceanography
Cited by
3 articles.
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