Monetary policy communication shocks and the macroeconomy

Abstract

AbstractUsing high‐frequency identification, we provide evidence that Fed communication surprises have larger macroeconomic effects than surprise actions. Three ingredients are central to show this: structurally distinguishing between Fed actions and communication, controlling for the Fed information effect, and including the surprise measures directly in a vector autoregression (VAR) system instead of using them as instruments. We also compare the macroeconomic effects of Fed communication surprises relating to varying horizons into the future. Fed communication with a two‐year horizon appears most powerful during the effective lower‐bound period, consistent with theoretical predictions regarding Fed forward guidance.