Regional Economic Performance and Net Migration Rates in Russia, 1993–2002

Abstract

Soviet legacies and uneven economic distress make post-Soviet Russia an especially interesting case in which to assess the effects of economic performance on regional net migration rates. Random effects models of net regional migration in 77 Russian regions from 1993 to 2002 indicate that mean wages and unemployment levels have substantial and predictable effects. These effects have several dynamic aspects: changes in mean wages (but not changes in unemployment) exert effects independently of wage and unemployment levels, the effect of unemployment decreases over time, and the effect of wage levels appears to increase. Overall, the results suggest a tendency toward regional equilibrium with respect to employment following the initial shock of Soviet collapse and market reforms, but continuing disequilibrium with respect to wages.