Unveiling measles transmission dynamics: Insights from a stochastic model with nonlinear incidence

Abstract

AbstractIn this paper, taking into account the inevitable impact of environmental perturbations on disease transmission, we primarily investigate a stochastic model for measles infection with nonlinear incidence. The transmission rate in this model follows a logarithmic normal distribution influenced by an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) process. To analyze the dynamic properties of the stochastic model, our first step is to establish the existence and uniqueness of a global solution for the stochastic equations. Next, by constructing appropriate Lyapunov functions and utilizing the ergodicity of the OU process, we establish sufficient conditions for the existence of a stationary distribution, indicating the prevalence of the disease. Furthermore, we provide sufficient conditions for disease elimination. These conditions are derived by considering the interplay between the model parameters and the stochastic dynamics. Finally, we validate the theoretical conclusions through numerical simulations, which allow us to assess the practical implications of the established conditions and observe the dynamics of the stochastic model in action. By combining theoretical analysis and numerical simulations, we gain a comprehensive understanding of the stochastic model's behavior, contributing to the broader understanding of measles transmission dynamics and the development of effective control strategies.