Viability analysis of Kordofan giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis antiquorum) in a protected area in Cameroon

Abstract

AbstractRepresenting one of the last populations of an IUCN Critically Endangered subspecies, estimates suggest the Kordofan giraffe of Cameroon's Bénoué Complex number fewer than 300 individuals, threatened by poaching and habitat degradation. This study investigated the viability of Bénoué National Park's Kordofan giraffe and efficacy of available interventions through a population viability analysis using VORTEX. The relative impacts of anti‐poaching activity, population supplementation, habitat protection and vaccination were explored, alongside a sensitivity analysis investigating parameter uncertainty. The baseline model projects a 78.6% probability of extinction (PE) within 100 years. Poaching of just two individuals every 5 years results in a 98.1% PE, highlighting anti‐poaching activity as a vital intervention. Movement of a female‐biased group into the park proved effective, with supplementation of 24 females reducing the PE by over 35%, sustaining a raised population size above the baseline for over 60 years on average. Annual carrying capacity reduction of 2% year−1 for 20 years resulted in a 97.8% PE. Conversely, habitat restoration had little consequence unless combined with further interventions. These findings underscore the magnitude of the threat facing Bénoué National Park's Kordofan giraffe. Conservation management should prioritise strengthening existing anti‐poaching activity in conjunction with protecting wildlife corridors to aid dispersal.