Improving distribution models of sparsely documented disease vectors by incorporating information on related species via joint modeling

Abstract

A necessary component of understanding vector‐borne disease risk is accurate characterization of the distributions of their vectors. Species distribution models have been successfully applied to data‐rich species but may produce inaccurate results for sparsely documented vectors. In light of global change, vectors that are currently not well‐documented could become increasingly important, requiring tools to predict their distributions. One way to achieve this could be to leverage data on related species to inform the distribution of a sparsely documented vector based on the assumption that the environmental niches of related species are not independent. Relatedly, there is a natural dependence of the spatial distribution of a disease on the spatial dependence of its vector. Here, we propose to exploit these correlations by fitting a hierarchical model jointly to data on multiple vector species and their associated human diseases to improve distribution models of sparsely documented species. To demonstrate this approach, we evaluated the ability of twelve models – which differed in their pooling of data from multiple vector species and inclusion of disease data – to improve distribution estimates of sparsely documented vectors. We assessed our models on two simulated datasets, which allowed us to generalize our results and examine their mechanisms. We found that when the focal species is sparsely documented, incorporating data on related vector species reduces uncertainty and improves accuracy by reducing overfitting. When data on vector species are already incorporated, disease data only marginally improve model performance. However, when data on other vectors are not available, disease data can improve model accuracy and reduce overfitting and uncertainty. We then assessed the approach on empirical data on ticks and tick‐borne diseases in Florida and found that incorporating data on other vector species improved model performance. This study illustrates the value in exploiting correlated data via joint modeling to improve distribution models of data‐limited species.