Job Polarization and the Declining Wages of Young Female Workers in the United Kingdom*

Abstract

AbstractWe examine whether the decline of routine occupations contributed to rising wage inequality between young and prime‐age non‐college educated women in the UK over 2001‐2019. We estimate age, period, and cohort effects for the likelihood of employment in different occupations and the wages earned therein. For recent generations, cohort effects indicate a higher likelihood of employment in low‐paying manual jobs relative to high‐paying abstract ones. Cohort effects also underpin falling wages for post‐1980 cohorts across all occupations. We find that the latter channel, rather than job polarization, has been the main driver of rising inter‐age inequality among non‐college females.