Prioritizing beliefs and the formation of expectations

Abstract

AbstractHow do expectations for novel opportunities—like Amazon from the perspective of 1998—come about? To form such expectations, decision‐makers need to derive plausible conclusions that go beyond the available information by interpreting it with the help of theories. I explain why asymmetric expectations among rational individuals can exist, even when information is symmetric: Differences in the willingness to question of (defined as “a preference ordering over”) elementary theoretical explanations of the novelty bring about heterogeneity in final expectations. I further argue that one source of better expectations is the skill to choose the relative willingness to question beliefs and thus the skill to integrate theories. I identify the skills of decision‐makers to detect and resolve inconsistencies and to decide when to give up beliefs again as sources of advantages in forming expectations.