Impact of China on commodity exporters

Abstract

AbstractWe compare the effect of a domestic shock in China and the US on the real economy and financial markets of various commodity‐exporting countries. To obtain a reliable indicator for China's macroeconomic conditions, we estimate a Bayesian dynamic factor model using block‐exclusion restrictions to identify a China factor and a US factor from monthly macroeconomic data for China and the US. We, then, assess the implications of a negative shock to both factors on the macroeconomy of a commodity‐exporting nation using Bayesian FAVARs based on recursive identification. A negative China shock leads to output loss and a fall in stock prices in these countries. China shock affects the output of only a subset of countries in our sample compared to the US shock, which affects all countries. China shock has a larger, quicker and more persistent impact on the stock markets of commodity‐exporting countries compared to the US shock. Countries with weaker institutional or business environments experience a larger negative real effect of the China shock, whereas countries with less stable financial systems demonstrate stronger financial effects. Using historical decomposition, we establish a growing role of the China factor over time, in particular for large emerging economies such as Brazil and Russia.