Around the EQUATOR with Clin‐STAR: Prediction modeling opportunities and challenges in aging research

Abstract

AbstractThe 2015 Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) Statement was published to improve reporting transparency for prediction modeling studies. The objective of this review is to highlight methodologic challenges that aging‐focused researchers will encounter when designing and reporting studies involving prediction models for older adults and provide guidance for addressing these challenges. In following the 22‐item TRIPOD checklist, researchers must consider the representativeness of cohorts used (e.g., whether older adults with frailty, cognitive impairment, and social isolation were included), strategies for incorporating common geriatric predictors (e.g., age, comorbidities, functional status, and frailty), methods for handling missing data and competing risk of death, and assessment of model performance heterogeneity across important subgroups (e.g., age, sex, race, and ethnicity). We provide guidance to help aging‐focused researchers develop, validate, and report models that can inform and improve patient care, which we label “TRIPOD‐65.”