Generative spatial generalized dissimilarity mixed modelling (spGDMM): An enhanced approach to modelling beta diversity

Abstract

Abstract Turnover, or change in the composition of species over space and time, is one of the primary ways to define beta diversity. Inferring what factors impact beta diversity is not only important for understanding biodiversity processes but also for conservation planning. At present, a popular approach to understanding the drivers of compositional turnover is through generalized dissimilarity modelling (GDM). We argue that the current GDM approach suffers several limitations and provide an alternative modelling approach that remedies these issues. We propose using generative spatial random effects models implemented in a Bayesian framework. We offer hierarchical specifications to yield full regression and spatial predictive inference, both with associated full uncertainties. The approach is illustrated by examining dissimilarity in three datasets: tree survey data from Panama's Barro Colorado Island (BCI), plant occurrence data from southwest Australia and plant abundance surveys from the Greater Cape Floristic Region (GCFR) of South Africa. We select a best model using out‐of‐sample predictive performance. We find that the form of the best model differs across the three datasets, but our models provide performance ranging from comparable to significant improvement over GDMs. Within the GCFR, the spatial random effects play a more important role in the modelling than all the environmental variables. We have proposed a model that provides several improvements to the current GDM framework. This includes advantages such as a flexible spatially varying mean function, spatial random effects that capture dependence unaccounted for by explanatory variables, and spatially heterogeneous variance structure. All these features are offered in a model that can adequately handle a large incidence of total dissimilarity through ‘one‐inflation’, as would be expected from highly biodiverse areas with steep turnover gradients.