Negative excess oral and pharyngeal cancer mortality in Europe during the early pandemic years

Abstract

AbstractObjectiveThe COVID‐19 pandemic had direct and indirect effects on oral and pharyngeal cancer (OPC) mortality due to high COVID‐19 mortality risk among cancer patients, and to the COVID‐19 response that caused treatment delays and reduced routine visits. This study investigated the excess OPC mortality in Europe during the early pandemic years.MethodsMortality and population data were gathered from the Eurostat database. The 2011–2019 mortality rates were used to estimate the 2020–2021 expected rates through joinpoint trend analysis. The excess mortality rates (observed minus expected mortality) with 95% confidence intervals (95 CIs) were assessed.ResultsStatistically significant negative excess age‐standardized and crude (age strata <65 and ≥65 years) OPC mortality rates in males and females, in the European Union (EU, 27 countries) and Europe were reported. The estimated OPC missing deaths in EU were 831 (95 CI, 630–985) and 1240 (95 CI, 1039–1394) in 2020 and 2021, respectively, with differences between sexes, age strata, and countries. The OPC deaths in the EU and Europe were 3.6% and 3.5% lower than expected.ConclusionMissing OPC deaths reported in Europe in 2020–2021 could be explained by changes in death certification of OPC patients who developed COVID‐19, rather than a real OPC mortality decline.