Ansteckungsgefahren im Eurogebiet und die Rettungsmaßnahmen des Frühling 2010

Abstract

AbstractA large number of German economists have spoken out against the package of aid measures provided by the Member States of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the countries within the euro area that have been facing severe financial difficulties. This includes in particular the opinion of 189 German economists on the EU debt crisis (see the plenum of German economists, 2011) and the study of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology of January 2011. Above all many German economists question whether those measures were necessary in order to prevent the emergence of contagion risks and domino effects within the European monetary union following a restructuring in one of the euro area countries. This paper illustrates the main channels of possible contagion. It emphasises how important it is, especially given the current crisis situation, to maintain the confidence of international investors in the willingness of euro area countries to honour their debt. In this respect, contract compliance on the part of highly-indebted national governments towards their creditors is essential. By contrast, if in the case of Greece for example financial market participants were to perceive a debt restructuring as a viable and politically acceptabelle option in case financial problems emerge in individual euro area countries, access to the capital markets will be harmed for the majority of these countries for many years to come.