Prediction of Platycodon grandiflorus distribution in China using MaxEnt model concerning current and future climate change

Abstract

Platycodon grandiflorus has long been used for its medicinal, culinary and ornamental properties. With increasing market demand and the depletion of wild resources, understanding the distribution and factors affecting its habitat suitability is crucial for its conservation and sustainable utilization. This study aims to predict the suitable habitat for P. grandiflorus in China considering current and future climate scenarios. The MaxEnt model, with an AUC value of 0.846, demonstrated good predictive ability for the current and future distribution of P. grandiflorus. It also identified the central, eastern, and southern regions as suitable habitats, with the critical environmental factors being precipitation, temperature, and elevation. Future scenarios under both SSP126 and SSP585 projections indicate an increase in suitable habitats, particularly in northeastern and central China, albeit with a shift in the distribution center towards the northeast by 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 under different scenarios. P. grandiflorus' distribution is significantly influenced by environmental factors, with precipitation and temperature being pivotal. Taken together, our study predicts an expansion of suitable habitats under future climate scenarios and the northward shift in the distribution center underlines the impact of global warming on the distribution of P. grandiflorus. The findings are crucial for the conservation, effective utilization, and strategic planning for the cultivation of P. grandiflorus in the face of climate change.