Effects and mechanisms of armed conflict on agricultural production: Spatial evidence from terrorist violence in Burkina Faso

Abstract

AbstractExtensive studies have been conducted on the link between armed conflict and agricultural production. However, the underlying mechanisms remain underexplored. A better understanding of these mechanisms could unpack the subsequent effects of conflict‐induced food and welfare shortages, as well as identify promising policy interventions. We study the effects of terrorist violence on household agricultural production in Burkina Faso and explore the underlying mechanisms. To achieve this, we combine nationally representative five‐year panel data on plots and households with spatial conflict data. Our analysis reveals negative and significant effects of terrorist violence on agricultural productivity and total output. Despite reducing cereal crop output, increased intensity of terrorist violence is significantly associated with higher production of cash crops, which require fewer inputs in Burkina Faso. Further investigations uncover that the decline in household agricultural productivity results from a significant decrease in the number of farming plots, land size, and short‐term production investments, including chemical fertilisers and pesticides. These findings remain robust across various alternative empirical specifications and measures of violence, offering insights that can help policymakers faced with similarly scaled armed conflict. For instance, ensuring a secure environment and providing reliable access to essential production inputs, such as chemical fertilisers and pesticides, can help support conflict‐affected household agricultural production during and after the violence periods.