Developing flood risk curves of agricultural economic damage under climate change in the Lower Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

Author:

Budhathoki Aakanchya1,Tanaka Tomohiro1ORCID,Tachikawa Yasuto1

Affiliation:

1. Graduate School of Engineering Kyoto University Kyoto Kyoto Japan

Abstract

AbstractRice is a major agricultural crop in Thailand, while paddy fields near river lines are exposed to high flood risk. This study assesses rice exposure and economic flood risk under future climate in the Lower Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand. To encompass various flood events, this study estimates the frequency of rice economic damage by employing a large ensemble climate projection dataset based on database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF). Results show that, in the 4‐K warmer climate, the 100‐year exposed cultivation area and duration will increase approximately by 1.2–1.4 and 1.1–1.2 times, respectively. Decreased rice production is evaluated as monetary damage through several fragility curves. The economic damage by the 2011 flooding is estimated as 11.25 billion Thai Baht, while the estimation varies from the fragility curves employed. In the 4 K warmer climate, regardless of the fragility curves, 100‐year rice damage is projected to increase by 1.2–1.4 times. The 2011 flooding is larger than all 3000‐year simulations in the past climate, whereas extreme events in the 4 K warmer climate showed higher damage than the 2011 flooding, indicating that agricultural damage corresponding to the 2011 flooding may occur more frequently in the future climate.

Funder

Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology

Publisher

Wiley

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3