Forecasting the long‐term impact of COVID‐19 on hepatitis C elimination plans in Italy: A mathematical modelling approach

Abstract

AbstractBackgroundItaly has a high HCV prevalence, and despite the approval of a dedicated fund for ‘Experimental screening’ for 2 years, screening has not been fully implemented. We aimed to evaluate the long‐term impact of the persisting delay in HCV elimination after the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic in Italy.MethodsWe used a mathematical, probabilistic modelling approach evaluating three hypothetical ‘Inefficient’, ‘Efficient experimental’ and ‘WHO Target’ screening scenarios differing by treatment rates over time. A Markov chain for liver disease progression evaluated the number of active infections, decompensated cirrhosis (DC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and HCV liver‐related deaths up to the years 2030 and 2050.ResultsThe ‘WHO Target’ scenario estimated 3900 patients with DC and 600 with HCC versus 4400 and 600 cases, respectively, similar for both ‘Inefficient’ and ‘Efficient experimental’ screening up to 2030. A sharp (10‐fold) decrease in DC and HCC was estimated by the ‘WHO Target’ scenario compared with the other two scenarios in 2050; the forecasted number of DC was 420 cases versus 4200 and 3800 and of HCC <10 versus 600 and 400 HCC cases by ‘WHO Target,’ ‘Inefficient’ and ‘Efficient experimental’ scenarios, respectively. A significant decrease of the cumulative estimated number of liver‐related deaths was observed up to 2050 by the ‘WHO Target’ scenario (52000) versus ‘Inefficient’ or ‘Efficient experimental’ scenarios (79 000 and 74 000 liver‐related deaths, respectively).ConclusionsOur estimates highlight the need to extensively and efficiently address HCV screening and cure of HCV infection in order to avoid the forecasted long‐term HCV adverse outcomes in Italy.